tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post6059035171742636248..comments2024-03-28T11:51:19.078-07:00Comments on Caltrain HSR Compatibility Blog: PCEP: Farce MajeureClemhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comBlogger40125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-68452787347644129122023-09-06T15:34:14.604-07:002023-09-06T15:34:14.604-07:00Tomorrow's board agenda still shows April 2024...Tomorrow's board agenda still shows April 2024 substantial completion and September 2024 revenue service, but they're reporting that a foundation grounding issue at the "25th Grade Separation" has taken over the critical path. I wonder if they left grounding rods out of the concrete pours during the Hillsdale station construction; it's unusual that "Complete Grounding" was still on that project's punch list as of December 2021 https://www.caltrain.com/media/19114/download?inline. Issue is shown to have started in January 2022, and as of August this year they've agreed on a way to "resolve" the issue, with the fix being installed now through January.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-37305144810769732202021-10-02T16:55:05.371-07:002021-10-02T16:55:05.371-07:00August Farce Majeure update: new schedule is alrea...August Farce Majeure update: new schedule is already starting to slip. The most important near-term milestone, the completion of segment 4 to allow 25 kV power to be turned on and start testing, has slipped 46 days to January 28th. This milestone has essentially gone sideways since the beginning of 2021, when it was 5 months in the future. As of the August schedule it continues to be 5 months in the future. Beyond this near-term horizon, the critical path continues to be signals, including the much-dreaded grade crossing constant warning time system.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-80446975919365856682021-07-05T11:13:04.863-07:002021-07-05T11:13:04.863-07:00May PCEP report is up. The big reveal of the sched...May PCEP report is up. The big reveal of the schedule slip finally came, and was in line with expectations. Revenue service date (including contingency) is now 3Q 2024.<br /><br />The Appendix C schedule, which had become severely dislocated by the desperate contortions to make it seem like the project would be done in 2022, now has breathing room. The critical path is through signals for each segment. Strangely, the signals task for Segment 2, shown in last month's pre-slip schedule as having already been underway for 2 years, is now entirely in the future. Even more strangely, the signals work in each segment is now performed sequentially, without overlaps between segments. This suggests the signal work (with progressive cut-overs of each circuit and/or grade crossing as the railroad operates without interruption) is a severe bottleneck worthy of management focus. Such focus appears to be forthcoming, with the signals scope likely to be removed from the BBII contract and managed directly by Caltrain.<br /><br />The December 2020 FTA Risk Refresh (dated June 2021) is now out, and provides additional context. The independent oversight contractor expresses continued concerns with Caltrain's ability to manage the complex schedule and the transition to operations, known as "rail activation." We learn that BBII is forecasting the electrification substantial completion milestone as 05 May 2024, more than 4 months later than advertised in Caltrain's official milestone schedule.<br /><br />Even with the slipped schedule, we're not out of the woods yet.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-5982354843302247592021-06-03T13:39:20.927-07:002021-06-03T13:39:20.927-07:00It's official. Electrification is delayed unti...It's official. Electrification is delayed until Q4 2024.<br />https://www.caltrain.com/about/MediaRelations/news/Caltrain_Electrification_Delayed_to_2024.htmlLameDudeSFnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-56556901390851302472021-05-31T12:31:47.308-07:002021-05-31T12:31:47.308-07:00BBII is reporting a delay in OCS foundation comple...BBII is reporting a delay in OCS foundation completion from May 2021 to July. Calmod's estimate is November 2021. And even that projects April's completion rate at 2.42 times the actual rate.<br /><br />Q1 2024 seems a tad optimistic. "No earlier than", sure.<br /><br />kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-54738609003222132392021-05-31T10:10:56.891-07:002021-05-31T10:10:56.891-07:00April PCEP report is up.
The big schedule slip / b...April PCEP report is up.<br />The big schedule slip / budget blowout "reveal" has been delayed to no earlier than July. Overall slippage still points to electric service starting no earlier than Q1 2024.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-48150733767560848412021-05-07T13:24:03.311-07:002021-05-07T13:24:03.311-07:00it was posted a week ago. Something ate my attem...it was posted a week ago. Something ate my attempt to post.<br /><br />The report says 92 foundations completed Mar 2021, 2 down from Feb 2021. Interestingly, CalMod is showing their own (overly optimistic) completion estimates, currently Sept 2021. They're not showing the contractor's absurd completion estimate of July 2021.<br /><br />BBII's estimate adds just over 52 foundations per month, on average, to CalMod's projections.<br />kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-36724598879259466362021-05-06T19:25:53.983-07:002021-05-06T19:25:53.983-07:00March PCEP report is up.
Sorry for the lack of pos...March PCEP report is up.<br />Sorry for the lack of posting, I do have some things in the works but they take a while to gestate.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-52461663497742785512021-03-16T11:02:33.273-07:002021-03-16T11:02:33.273-07:00The November 2020 report projected 200 foundations...The November 2020 report projected 200 foundations to be completed in January 2021. The Dec 2020 report projected six more (206). 21 is barely 10% of that.<br /><br />IMHO The April monthly report (covering March 2021) is one to watch. The Dec 2020 report shows expected completion of 270 foundations in March. (down to 131 in the Jan report). At current rates, finishing more than 50 foundations would be an accomplishment.<br /><br />What surprised me is that the Sept 2021 completion comes from Caltrain staff. The contractor (BBII) is saying July 2021 (revised from May 2021). Is reality seeping into the SamTrans bunker?<br />kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-44979149293124614582021-02-25T05:27:20.157-08:002021-02-25T05:27:20.157-08:00January report is up! 21 foundations and even fewe...January report is up! 21 foundations and even fewer poles. It's a total joke.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-32560569992231728132021-02-03T21:15:27.602-08:002021-02-03T21:15:27.602-08:00Clem,
thank you for the clarification. All makes s...Clem,<br />thank you for the clarification. All makes sense now.<br /><br />If it's not too much trouble, can you extend the abcissa of your graph (at top) out to early 2024? I'd find it interesting to track actual progress against that extrapolation.kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-17905100043499728152021-02-03T18:00:45.502-08:002021-02-03T18:00:45.502-08:00I should have clarified that early 2024 is my own ...I should have clarified that early 2024 is my own estimate based on a linear extrapolation of the schedule slippage experienced over the last couple of years. This is not Caltrain official party line.<br /><br />The graphs at the top of this post contain all the information you seek to predict when things will be complete.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-29467793859118998652021-01-31T13:01:37.626-08:002021-01-31T13:01:37.626-08:00typo: 1,031 foundations remainingtypo: 1,031 foundations remainingkiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-27945520453226682282021-01-31T13:00:37.261-08:002021-01-31T13:00:37.261-08:00Clem,
The Dec 2020 Calmod Monthly Reportis at: htt...Clem,<br />The Dec 2020 Calmod Monthly Reportis at: https://www.caltrain.com/Assets/Caltrain+Modernization+Program/Documents/MPR/2020-12+December+2020+Monthly+Progress+Report.pdf . It repeatedly says Revenue Service Date (RSD) is Oct 10, 2022. Where are you seeing 2024? "2024" has 0 ocurrences in the document. "2023" has two: datapoints, in charts. (pdf p. 77/138 and 78/138(.<br /><br />Are you looking at a different document?<br /><br />The projected foundation completion (Chart 2-4), PDF page 12/138, is no longer the obviously-fabricated flat line. But it still projects foundation completion in 6 months. Over the last 6 months, 244 foundations were completed; call it 41 per month. With 1033 foundations yet to finish, that comes out at 25 months.<br /><br />Early 2024 for RSD sounds plausible, but I wouldn't bet on Jan 2024. Would you?<br />kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-6758111387087323212021-01-31T07:46:57.055-08:002021-01-31T07:46:57.055-08:00Have you considered writing to the Caltrain board ...Have you considered writing to the Caltrain board of directors? They're legally required to reply, and all correspondence is public. I think there's plenty of crap in that December report that deserves public comment by the board.<br /><br />This is just plain insanityAnonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14957938745387032247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-29331763027294389052021-01-30T15:51:51.101-08:002021-01-30T15:51:51.101-08:00December 2020 update is now posted. Revenue servic...December 2020 update is now posted. Revenue service is predicted to begin for New Year 2024. That's right, twenty FOUR.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-20653028742475557182021-01-01T17:58:59.461-08:002021-01-01T17:58:59.461-08:00draft board packet ;) -- I found it. 54 foundati...draft board packet ;) -- I found it. 54 foundations in November. 54. I don't need to see your slippage graph.<br /><br />Who *are* these people? They're putting together a package for their execs, and they're including a report which (by the Board meeting) is over 35 days old. Why aren't they including the December CalMod progress report? All the reports are dated last-day-of-month; they should have had that report by Thursday, and had it ready to include.<br /><br />As it is, they're also including the report from October 2020, with the expected 75 foundation for Nov 2020. No mention whatsoever of the discrepancy (54 vs 75).<br /><br />Someone should be talking, daily, figuring out why yesterday's foundation goals werent' met, what can be done to fix them, and what can be done to help meet today's and tomorrow's foundation goals. Instead we have someone at Caltrain robotically updating a spreadsheet once a month, with no sense of urgency. And those same people falsify the reports to Caltrain's Board, by injecting unreasonable, unwarranted and unattainable rates for future foundation completion.<br /><br />Oh no, I'm starting to sound like Richard. Is there anything, anything at all, that local taxpayers can do to remediate this cluster****?<br /><br />Or just wait for 2024 and hope that electric trains are running by then. Maybe.<br />kiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-16243052031618630752021-01-01T17:32:53.626-08:002021-01-01T17:32:53.626-08:00It is embedded in the January board meeting packet...It is embedded in the January board meeting packet.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-91767990301929122832020-12-31T09:51:47.413-08:002020-12-31T09:51:47.413-08:00Where is the November update? I don't see it ...Where is the November update? I don't see it at https://www.caltrain.com/projectsplans/CaltrainModernization/CalMod_Document_Library.htmlkiwi.jonathanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/18215458981556481196noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-82219773157631862322020-12-30T20:30:45.270-08:002020-12-30T20:30:45.270-08:00Farce Majeure: November update is up. I have a coo...Farce Majeure: November update is up. I have a cool new plot of the slippage of the completion milestone.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-30792141229650892602020-12-13T15:51:48.493-08:002020-12-13T15:51:48.493-08:00As someone who has submitted a lot of monthly stat...As someone who has submitted a lot of monthly status reports, although not on a Caltrain project, the "attended XXX meeting" is there because the status report supports the billing. To simplify, you submit an invoice and do your best to report on what you did for the hours billed, meetings included. If the detail is deep enough, you can learn what was being discussed by whom and when. Michaelhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10280692412235449436noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-61142004793551934142020-12-09T08:28:49.684-08:002020-12-09T08:28:49.684-08:00Sounds about right. The part about these reports t...Sounds about right. The part about these reports that boils my blood the most is 'activity last month' and 'activity this month'. They frequently have stuff in there like 'attend status meetings' which is completely useless.<br /><br />At this point, segments 3/4 are far enough along that they should be calling out specific foundations or clusters of foundations, explaining the related blocking tasks/risks/holdups/whatever, and putting a date on when they'll be ready to go. Right now, the data that we have is totally meaningless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-36892337707921906892020-11-29T11:22:50.798-08:002020-11-29T11:22:50.798-08:00I have reviewed the October 2020 PCEP montly repor...I have reviewed the October 2020 PCEP montly report and updated this post. The schedule shenanigans continue!Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-67560348453378940492020-11-21T13:39:06.144-08:002020-11-21T13:39:06.144-08:00Well look at what the cat brought home: the May 20...Well look at what the cat brought home: the <a href="http://www.tillier.net/stuff/caltrain/PCEP%20Quarterly%20Monitoring%20Report%20May%202020_Final%20TO%20Rpt.pdf" rel="nofollow">May 2020 PMOC quarterly monitoring report</a>. This independent oversight report is highly informative and provides an excellent summary in the form of Appendix I.Clemhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01374282217135682245noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8419444332771213285.post-28511956968230667322020-11-15T11:42:36.078-08:002020-11-15T11:42:36.078-08:00Thanks for the summary Clem. It's concerning t...Thanks for the summary Clem. It's concerning that the relationship between Caltrain and BB continues to degrade. I hope it does not end up like SFMTA and TP in SF which has resulted in the central subway being 4 years late and $300M over budget<br /><br />Regarding point 3, I think this negotiation between Caltrain and UP for the short track rights was talked about in previous PMOC reports. Doesn't sound like any progress has been made this year.<br /><br />In other UP news, expect to hear this week about how the pipe-dream of elevating the Diridon station in SJ is only feasible if UP is paid off $$$ to eliminate the southern leg of the warm springs wye, and probably the vasona branch too. Hopefully this is enough to kill this idea.jpk122shttp://twitter.com/jpk122snoreply@blogger.com